Knowing full well the infighting and power struggles among his top commanders, Than Shwe fears that he might not be able to pull the strings when he's no longer in control.
Indeed, as things stand now at this time of “political transition” in Burma, Than Shwe’s real concern is not detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi but young army officers and cabinet ministers who have become increasingly powerful and wealthy in the last decade.
It's not Suu Kyi who keeps him awake at night, but the question of how his trusted officers can ensure his future security and that of his family.
Than Shwe will have to live with the kharma of having imprisoned or put under house arrest several subordinates, including Khin Nyunt, who harbor no good will for him or his family.
For that reason, Than Shwe's exit strategy is likely to restrain him from giving up total power.
If he changes his mind, Shwe Mann or Htay Oo could be candidates for the top job.
Likewise, if Than Shwe feels insecure about appointing Myint Swe to head the army he has several younger officers to choose from—including Lt-Gen Hla Htay Win, Maj-Gen Ko Ko, Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe and Maj-Gen Kyaw Swe.
So, for now, good luck with your election, Mr President-in-Waiting Than Shwe!
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