It's feared that fighting could break out again in the north or that the regime might employ divide and rule tactics to create splits within ethnic armies.
The regime has no shortage of options—including outlawing the largest ethnic armed group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA) and its political wing the United Wa State Party (UWSP), if they fail soon to agree to the BGF plan.
Like Suu Kyi and many other prominent political leaders and activists who have spent time in prison, the ethnic groups have little say in the planned election. For that reason alone, the election will be far from free, fair and inclusive.
Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].
"The SPDC does not need this election for legitimacy at all."
No, it's for the propagation of the species and to establish its firm institutional foundation. If military coups were legitimate why bother legitimizing them in a "constitution" got up for the purpose?
"1st base: Election (overseen by no one but the military and its lackeys)
2nd Base: SPDC approving results (like they did in 1990).
3rd Base: Effecting change from within (under siege by the military and its lackeys, so plenty of room for manoeuvring)."
And of course ASSK is responsible for the 2,200 political prisoners. If it isn't the lady, it must be her father to blame.
Steven Baldesco Wrote:
15/03/2010
This election will be nothing more than the junta's way of cementing its iron-fist over Burma and its people.
Their "disciplined democracy" is just plain MILITARY DICTATORSHIP.
tocharian Wrote:
13/03/2010
Than Shwe can do whatever he wants, because he has decided to go with the Chinese. Remember the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister told Than Shwe to maintain stability, i.e. "don't lose control".
In a way, Than Shwe doesn't have much of a choice, since he and his cronies will be in big trouble if the NLD won the elections!
Although I admire ASSK, I do think that she relied a bit too much on Western democracies and the UN to "stand by her" which they did, but with the clout that China has nowadays, even the US doesn't dare to totally oppose Chinese ambitions of hegemony over Burma and ASEAN (string of pearls strategy).
That the Chinese want to control Burma is an old story, goes back thousands of years, but now they have succeeded because Than Shwe, the tayoke pay min, is totally dependent on China and Singapore for his wealth and his safety (including that of his grandson!)
plan B Wrote:
13/03/2010
Ko Aung Zaw,
The Irrawaddy should clearly show that the SPDC's ultimate trump is "postponing this sham election indefinitely" for myriad reasons.
1) The SPDC does not need this election for legitimacy at all.
2)Neither does SGTS and his cohorts need an exit strategy now that the teachers from N. Korean are at hand to impart their knowledge of ultimate survival skill by the Kims.
Maybe from these two facts alone The Irrawaddy might like to elaborate on all the ramifications besides the "Free and Fair" fallacy.
1st base: Election
2nd Base: SPDC approving results.
3rd Base: Effecting change from within.
Can not imagine USDA winning all contests outside of the assured military majority.
plan B Wrote:
12/03/2010
"I only feel extremely sorry for Daw Suu and the nearly 2,200 political prisoners and their families who have sacrificed so much."
Are you quite sure that it is not all the stated but also DASSK that let them down?
Please don't compare DASSK's plight with those in various prisons. The only similarity b/t Inya Lake and Insein is "In-".
Talk about disingenuous. Or is it ignorance?
James O'Brien Wrote:
11/03/2010
It's a foregone conclusion that the so-called "elections" will be anything but "free and fair."
They will be controlled and manipulated.
What difference does it make for the NLD not to be "legal" according to this senseless "registration"?
Everyone should boycott this staged "event."
I only feel extremely sorry for Daw Suu and the nearly 2,200 political prisoners and their families who have sacrificed so much.
In the end the UN, Obama, all the wishy washy "commentators," all let them down.
I blame everybody, especially of course the blessed junta and its apologists.
But its demise will come.
Never doubt that.
It is not surprising that many ethnic groups will take to arms again.
But they have little chance against a standing army of half a million, the largest in SE Asia.
Try Sein Finn and IRA tactics?
FYI, Sein Finn inspired the Burmese Independence struggle before World War II.
Tom Tun Wrote:
11/03/2010
The time has come and true nature of evil is shown before us all. It also is shameful of the US's new engagement policy. What ordinary Burmese people foretold about four months ago was definitely correct, which is that the election will not be fair, forget about it being free.
How could smart US politicians miss the noise of opposition?
Now is the time to request the nations of the world for support to ARM the Opposition. Any nation with belief in the divine and want to see this world a better place should consider standing up and supporting us now. These evildoers in Burma will never stop until they learn hard and painful lessons. It is time for any nation to decide which side they will stand on. We need modern weapons to stand against this evil regime. This regime has no intention to change Burma positively.
The time to rise up against the brutish regime is now. All Burmese, ethnic brothers and sisters, our rights, freedom and even lives are seriously violated, so let's unite together. It is time to fight.
KKK Wrote:
11/03/2010
All Burmese people need to stand up now and ask the international community not to recognize the 2010 election and the new military government as a legitimate government.
dilly Wrote:
10/03/2010
Dream's time is finish. If the NLD has a political proposal, this is the time to show it. Whoever the leader, people will follow, because people know she's the party's soul. To cease to exist is like to vanish 20 years and more of people's hope and faith.
This is not the time to cling to principles, right principles but useless to go ahead now.
e.r. Wrote:
10/03/2010
A farce, as widely expected.
George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
10/03/2010
It is NO NEWS!
Every mechanism is in place to outlaw the NLD and keep Daw Suu out of the picture since day one, lest you forget.
The fact that election laws are published at the eleventh hour bore testimony to the fact Than Shwe is not playing fair, much less on level ground as well.
The UN, US and EU call for a free, fair and all inclusive political process in Burma made no impact much less pack clout on the monk murderer headed to his doom holding his seven step road map to hell.
I will give the election date as October 10, 2010, provided he stoops to that lowly drug runner Bao You Xiang and Shan rebels claiming a chunk of Burma's territory as their own today.
Another interpretation: Than Shwe has guts only to bully a helpless widow, idle and clueless NLD, and unarmed people of Burma.
Thus, he is just a yellow blooded COWARD in the uniform of Burma Armed Forces founded by our late Gen Aung San when faced with a lowly lackey of Chinese communists next door.
Shame on Than Shwe, I say!
Soe Thane Wrote:
10/03/2010
ASSK should think strategically and use this as a blessing in disguise. For twenty years she has tried to be the leader of a legal political party, playing by the rules, hoping for 'dialogue' and hoping for foreign 'pressure'. Where has it gotten her or the country? No where.
Some form of the NLD should register and contest the elections. You have to play a multi-dimensional game.
But ASSK herself (and other ex-political prisoners or ones that may be released later) should rise about party politics. They dont need to be a 'legitimate' party. She should be an 'elder statesman', pushing a much broader agenda than winning seats for the NLD.
Lets get the elections out of the way - with a USDA majority and some opposition parties and some ethnic parties. It may not change much but it wont be worse than now.
And have ASSK separate from all this, free from the party, patient, preparing properly for round two. Time will be on her side.
COMMENTS (12)
E-MAIL
PRINT
