The United Wa State Army is the main one, and the biggest obstacle for Naypyidaw's attempts to establish its writ over the entire country.
“An attack on the UWSA would open a Pandora's box of problems for the regime, including a new refugee crisis in China and the possibility of war on many fronts inside the country.”
The prospect of a hostile confrontation between the Burmese army and ethnic groups along the Sino-Burma border has Chinese leaders worried.
In late January, Ye Dabo, the Chinese ambassador to Burma, met with Burmese Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan in Napyidaw to discuss stability in the border area and the security of Chinese citizens in Burma.
The meeting came after Min Ein, the secretary-general of the Mongla ceasefire group known as the National Democratic Alliance Arm, was killed in Mongla, a town on the Sino-Burmese border in eastern Shan State.
Diplomats in Rangoon say they believe that the Chinese are warning both Burmese and ethnic leaders not to resume fighting along the border. Several ethnic groups want China to play a negotiator role in the stalemate.
In the past few months, several Chinese officers based in Yunnan Province have traveled to Wa territory to gather firsthand information about the Wa position.
The regime wants to settle the border guard force issue as soon as possible ahead of the poll. But if this proves impossible without a show of force, diplomats fear that the regime could end up postponing the planned election. So far, the regime hasn't promulgated an electoral law or committed to a date for the election.
As things stand at the moment, all's quiet on the northern front. But with everyone there digging their trenches, this could just be the calm before the storm.
Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].
No one should be surprised,least of all the junta,that it is its own strategy of ceasefire cum enrichment deals with the ethnics for the last two decades that has strengthened these groups, complete with Chinese patrons like the junta itself.
We'll see which is stronger, business or ethnic ties.
On a global scale, China has itself benefited greatly from the deals it has made with the West since Deng took over.
What if China suddenly made a U turn on the capitalist road? Even without reversing to its ditched Marxist ideals, perhaps because of its switch to capitalist enterprise with the zeal of a convert,the West is facing a real competition and far more difficult challenge from China today than when it was Red.
Whilst ethnic groups on their own and even together are very unlikely to topple this regime,a weakened junta is vulnerable to a palace coup IF the leadership is seen to be too incompetent. It will of course exploit nationalism to the hilt, but its crisis is our opportunity.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
20/02/2010
myo chit Wrote: 13/02/2010
MP 4 UMPF
You do not support the Panglong agreement in your earlier postings. Now you call these minorities "brethren". Have you changed your mind?
COMMENT:they always have been our brethren. You must be very CONFUSED. We reject Panglong for moral/intellectual reasons.
Intellectually,federalism is not what Panglong means in the strictest sense; Panglong paves the way for interpretation as self-determination by unbelievably dense people with holier-than-thou atttitude.
Federalism certainly DOES NOT MEAN a handful of unelected (by Karen or anyone) carving OUT their own 'unviable' little empires to the detriment of Bamars and all ethnic brethren.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
20/02/2010
The duty of the state, whoever holds the state power, is to quell rebellion; a large group is not killing any small group wothout reason.
It is stopping the slide to anarchy, in the name of self-determination;timebomb of Panglong.
Burma is not peaceful because a tiny minority, motley bunches of Panglongists, in their holier-than-thou attitude, completely fails to understand real politics.
In other words, their intellectual poverty and consequent failure to recognise the currents of history are real causes of all Burma's problems today.
Today's Burmese army is the counterpart of Oliver Cromwell's 'new model army'; ever heard of it? After Cromwell, the monarchy had to be brought back in. History is beckoning our king HM King Shwebomin II to come home and rule justly and compassionately.
PATRIOTISM is never narrow-minded; only those who feel 'holier-than-thou' think so. Their holier-than-thou is keeping them trapped in a really, really narrow mindset, uncritically Panglongist.
jp Kachin Wrote:
20/02/2010
To the Mahar Bamas,
What century are we living in? Do you want to go back to the 16th century-Bayin Naung and Dabin Shwe Htee era?
"Mahar Bama?" What! Can't you be a little bit more open and appreciate the diversity our country has. Every ethnic nationality has their proud culture. There is no superiority of race over another in term of culture. In this 21st century world, there is nothing worst shame than being a racist. In the real world you can even lose your job just by giving a racist comment. What is good about being a Mahar Bamar? Open up, people!
Bum Tsaw Wrote:
20/02/2010
To those Bama/Burman racists like Okkar,
There is no pure Burman in your so-called Myanmar or Burma. You think you have 100 percent Burman blood. But you are not. You guys are a mixture of different ethnic groups.
Note that you guys are living in illusion. If you don't believe, test your DNA.
It is ridiculous. Poor you who don't know where you are from. Even Burman historians are still arguing and not sure whether their origin is Tagong or Kyauk Se.
You the Mahar Bama wants to eliminate all the ethnic minority and want to build a new Bama Kingdom or nation-state. I would say you the Bamars deserve this brutal Bamar military regime, who brutally killed your own God (monks). I have no symphathy for you.
Support your own evil military regime until you die. But for us, we will keep fighting your Burman generals until the last breath. You try to destroy us. But we will keep fighting you. all the racists.
Burman brothers, you deserve your evil government who killed your gods(monks).
Free Man Wrote:
19/02/2010
I would like to extend my heartfelt appreciation to those who spent their time to express their desire for peace, justice, harmony, etc.
To those racial supremacists and chauvinists, your mind-set, not ethnic and religious diversity, is the cause of war and poverty in Burma.
Also, no wonder the contury has had rulers like Ne Win, Saw Maung and Than Shwe because you guys provide a platform for them to stand on.
Put your heads up and look around where we are and where the rest of the world community is. Are you really proud of being a citizen of Burma because of the situation we are in? Never too late to correct oneself for the sake of peace, justicie, harmony, humanity, etc.
kachin Chief Wrote:
19/02/2010
We do not want to live in Burma. We the Kachins want to live peacefully in our Kachinland. You the Burmans need to get out of our land. Right now. In the Union of Burma, four nations came together and formed the Union. Kachin nation, Shan nation, Chin nation and Burma nation. No one is above the others. Burma one kyat Kachin one kyat, Chin one kyat Shan one kyat.
Tom Tun Wrote:
16/02/2010
When I see some of the comment posted on The Irrawaddy Web page, they worry me a lot. I constantly search for the reason, why Burma is not a peaceful country.
Lack of justice is the reason that fires the civil war in Burma.
When the British invaded Burma with modern weapons and military power, the majority of Burmese people said it was unjust. Now, in independent free Burma, a majority strong group using modern weapons and military power to oppress minority ethnic groups, how can that be justifiable?
Some Burmese or Bamar patriot want to build the country over the suffering of some smaller group.
For me, it is nothing more than destruction of the peace process by some narrow minded, stupid, patriotic Burmans.
When a group of thugs rob a family, it is a crime. When a large group with power rob and kill another small group of people, can the action be call peace-making? Why would a small group have to die for a large group? Don't they have the same rights as any others?
Okkar Wrote:
15/02/2010
Myanmar/Burma—call it what you will—has always been ruled by Bamas and it will remain so for centuries to come. Kayins by nature are subservient to a master, be it colonial or otherwise.
In other words, ethnic people in Myanmar, like everywhere else in the world, need a dominant race to give them guidance and help them up the evolutionary ladder.
Look at America. The native American Red Indians needed Anglo-Irish settlers to help them up the evolution ladder. The same goes for English and Scottish people.
The examples are everywhere. To those who complain about the Maha Bamas issue, there's always a choice for you not to live in Myanmar.
Snoopy Wrote:
15/02/2010
The comments by Myo Chit and Bama Kyi bring much shame on themselves. Rude words and cruel mentality do not serve anything good. We need to make more of constructive criticisms.
Burmans, Shans, Kachins, Mons, Rakhines and so on are brothers and sisters in the Union of Myanmar. Why can't we see ourselves as one family? We are brethren and we must love one another. We need mutual respect, understanding, cooperation, equal rights and equal opportunities. Without these essential elements, our beloved country will fall behind, if not fall apart.
Let's make peace, not war. Let's show mutual respect, not resentment. I pray that there be mutual love, respect, understanding, forgivness, courage and hope among the citizens of Myanmar.
plan B Wrote:
15/02/2010
Ko Aung ZAw should get an "A" for this synopsis; however, for an A++ he should have mentioned the knavery of the SPDC.
Again underestimating the resources of the SPDC will only serve the SPDC well by promoting the "Let sit around and see how the Wa is going to hurt the Tatmadaw"
Even if this stalemate continues, the beneficiary will be the SPDC for obvious reasons that Ko Aung Zaw must make clear.
Even if the Wa dealt a blow to the SPDC the result will not favor democracy in Myanmar, neither will the SPDC out smart the Wa, which is exactly what will eventually happen.
So what are the other parties that effected this status quo doing?
Nothing.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
13/02/2010
Bama Kyi,
We are not half Chinese or half Indian. Our clothings are a mix but our true clothes are of royal origin. How can you betray your own race? We are Tibeto-Burman, according to the English taxonomy.
But who are the English to tell us who we are? There was no such country as India. The upper half of India was Greater Tibet, later Hindustan. Bamars, Chins, Kachins, Nagas, Kayins,Yakhines, Mons Shans had become one - Bamar or Myanmars.
What do you think the English are made of? Dispel your ignorance; just google the origin of the English race and see how pure it is! Remember the upper class English spoke French and so did the English court. Will you stop maligning yourself out of hatred of the Burmese military.
myo chit Wrote:
13/02/2010
Bama Kyi,
Please do not insult your own race. Isn't it possible that the Indians got the longyi and the Chinese got the Taik Pone from us.
myo chit Wrote:
13/02/2010
MP 4 UMPF
You do not support the Panglong agreement in your earlier postings. Now you call these minorities "brethen". Have you chaged your mind?
The first Bamar dynasty was started by a royal person of the Buddha's line, as you said. Do the minorities have anything similar to be proud of? Obviously they don't.
Then, doesn't your statement on the lofty origin of our rulers suggest our superiority over those who were ruled by mere tribal chiefs and village heads?
What do you mean by branches of the same tree? Mons are of the same stock as the Khmers and Shans are the same as Yodaya. In fact, the word Shan was spelt Syam (tha-ya-pint-ma that) in the past (see pagan stone inscriptions) and Thailand was once known as Siam. So we surely are different unless you want to include the Yodayas and Cambodians as branches of your tree.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
12/02/2010
It is sheer wickedness to use the term "we the great Bamas" in such a twisted parody; never have we suggested Bamar superiority over the brethren; it's unbelievable to call them subject peoples; how stupid, how ignorant! Burma was originally spelt Burmah; Burmah was derived from Brahma as our country was called in ancient times; the origin of the Burmese monarchy is Tagaung; a prince of the Buddha line, from Kapilavastu, having lost the struggle for the throne headed east to Tagaung where there was a community and he became their king.
As a matter of fact ethnic Bamars are late settlers into Burma; the Pyus, counterpart of the Picts of Scotland, were original Bamars alongside the Kayin—meaning original inhabitants. For goodness sake, we are branches of the same tree, with the same roots.It is a folly to see politics purely in terms of what is happening today and the ideology of democracy, without understanding how democracy is achieved, even a lack of democracy; dictatorship,oppression etc.
Sai Kham Thi Wrote:
12/02/2010
After watching what happened to the Kokangs, all ethnics must not put their trust in Than Shwe and his dogs. They will trick and eat your flesh, because the demons always do this way.
Ceasefires were not designed for the good of the ethnics but to put them to an end. Be watchful.
Bama Kyi Wrote:
11/02/2010
You all know that we Bamas are half-Chinese and half-Indian (Kala). Our Longkyi is from our Daddy Kala and our Taikpon is from our Mommy Tayuk. Therefore, nobody tells us what to do as long as our parents (Kala and Tayuk) are standing with us. We can kill all the ethnic peoples and shut all their mouths. No one can stop us from what we have done for our own security.
Kyaik-ka-san Wrote:
11/02/2010
Currently, Than Shwe and cronies are circled with a fire ring of "disciplined democracy," consequences of applying intimidation, telling lies, ultimatum, division, assassination, torture and abuse of the law as suppression tools.
These tools may not always be effective. Once its “charm” vanishes, the crafty junta’s final day comes.
The Kokang show that creating division and the murder of Min Ein are not able to press active insurgents to join the BGF. Mismanagement brings not only the collapse of the national economy, it also causes mass desertion among the rank and file due to their meager salaries.
Keeping the election law in secrecy to date indicates a lack of self-confidence, knowing it will not go exactly as TS plans.
25 million people in the Irrawaddy Division, plus a majority of the remaining half, including national minorities, patriotic army personnel, monks, intellectuals, farmers and workers will vote for opposition parties.
The unarguable fact is that none will vote for killer TS’s and his representatives, except cronies.
Myo Chit Wrote:
11/02/2010
We, the great Bamas, must conquer the subject peoples, including the Shans, by all means no matter how cruel the means may be. I am sure my fellow Maha Bama supremacists/nationalists like Myanmar Patriot and George T Heine will agree with me.
James O'Brien Wrote:
10/02/2010
Pandora's Box indeed.
Since Ne Win's times, the junta has understood nothing but "when cleaning up the cane brake, get every root out."
None of the ceasefires were working and the Wa are the most well-heeled, allegedly with money from drug sales.
The last thing we want to see is groups battling it out with high tech arms.
The junta does not understand Negotiation, though it may understand "deals."
The thing is the junta might try and stamp out the ethnic armed groups one by one, and they are not strong enough to combine and take Rangoon or Naypyidaw, also how would that be, like the Khmer Rouge taking Pnom Penh?
What would come after? I shudder to think of both scenarios.
James O'Brien.
George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
10/02/2010
If this proves impossible without a show of force, diplomats fear that the regime could end up postponing the planned election. So far, the regime hasn't promulgated an electoral law or committed to a date for the election.
This could be the obvious signal of Than Shwe's capitulating not only to the Chinese communists but Wa and Shan drug runners as well.
Failing to go gunning for Wa and Shan rebels due to Chinese intervention would subject Than Shwe to much shame and ridicule - a coward - among his minions and cost him his posterity and future also, no doubt.
At this juncture, he has some points to ponder; amongst many one most viable and credible is to strike a deal with Daw Suu and work out together in his own interest and Burma's as well.
And thus he could earn his place in history at least in a peaceful and profitable way.
Going down with the sinking ship should not be the end of his rather tumultuous reign.
He should think of his family's future as the patriarch also.
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