Into the Unknown

By The Irrawaddy JANUARY, 2008 - VOLUME 16 NO.1

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However, the original “road map” should be amended to become an inclusive plan for all parties, allowing ethnic and NLD leaders to participate in the current constitution-drafting process.

Catastrophe and humanitarian intervention

If the current political stagnation continues, Burma could, within the next 20 years, become a totally failed state and the cause of serious instability in the region and beyond.

Aung San Suu Kyi and UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari [Photo: UNIC Yangon]

Refugees, internally displaced people, forced migration, tensions within ethnic groups, drugs, health issues, poverty and economic malaise—these endemic problems could mount to the point where the regional and international community has to intervene.

The UN, Asean, China and Western governments would no longer be able to pay lip service to the regime. They might be compelled to enforce a political settlement, replacing the military regime with a civilian-dominated administration that includes moderate military leaders.

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