A Dictator’s Balancing Act
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Friday, March 29, 2024
Burma

A Dictator’s Balancing Act


By Aung Zaw Friday, February 23, 2007


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Burma’s generals are quoted in official newspapers as claiming they want to build a modern and developed nation with “flourishing disciplined democracy.” But consider the true picture…
 
Burma’s prisons still incarcerate more than 1,000 political prisoners, according to Amnesty International. Burma’s most famous political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under house arrest, and the regime recently announced that her release date hasn’t been decided yet.
 
Residents in many parts of Rangoon still live in semi-darkness as the government can o­nly provide electricity six hours a day. Roads are in an appalling state, and those who have to use them jokingly say it’s like driving o­n the moon.

It doesn’t take economists or political scientists to confirm that Burma is in a state of limbo. The slowdown is clear for all to see.

Some, including Burmese political observers, believe the slowdown might lead the country and its government to a complete halt. Their fears are compounded by rumors of a power struggle among top leaders, about Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s health and his hesitant departure from the political scene. 
 
Persistent rumors indicate that Than Shwe, who is in his late 70s, wants to relinquish the post in which he has served so long, but might not want to vacate the throne for Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye. Than Shwe became commander in chief of the armed forces and chairman of the ruling junta, the State Peace and Development Council, in 1991.
 
Pundits also point out that Than Shwe may also be worried about his family business and the personal safety of his family members. His desire to leave office may, therefore, face the opposition of his wife, Kyaing Kyaing.
 
Kyaing Kyaing, who has five daughters, two sons and grandsons, is said to call the shots in the family and is considered to wield considerable influence within its circle. Her sons are involved in business, and her eldest grandson, a favorite of Than Shwe, is currently studying in Singapore.
 
It’s likely, therefore, that Than Shwe may remain in power indefinitely. But that possibility didn’t prevent his likely successor, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, from making a move after Than Shwe received medical treatment in Singapore in January.
Shwe Mann, who is attached to the Defense Ministry, appeared at several state functions, receiving foreign visitors and making an official visit to India.

After graduating from the Defense Services Academy, Intake 11, in 1969, Shwe Mann earned the honorific title "Thura" for his bravery in fighting the Karen National Liberation Army in 1989. He continued his studies at the National Defense Institute, then joined the Ministry of Defense in 2001, becoming joint chief-of-staff. In 2003, he was promoted to general.
 
Shwe Mann was rarely seen in public, but is known to be Than Shwe’s favored choice to lead the armed forces when, or if, he retires. After being given a top job at the Defense Ministry, 59-year-old Shwe Mann kept in the shadows for many years. Than Shwe encouraged this secretiveness, keeping foreign and Burmese observers guessing. It’s likely, though, that the top job within the armed forces is being reserved for Shwe Mann, who has been running day-to-day affairs at the Defense Ministry.
 
Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye, army commander-in-chief and o­ne of the two remaining members of the ruling council that staged the bloody coup in 1988, may not ready to embrace Shwe Mann, however. 
 
Recent rumors circulating among political observers say that Shwe Mann and Maung Aye may be at loggerheads. Maung Aye, a former northern commander who graduated from DSA Intake 1, played a pivotal role in eliminating former Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and his o­nce powerful intelligence apparatus in 2004. The two had been locked in a power struggle for many years, but finally Khin Nyunt lost and was given a 44-year prison sentence for insubordination and corruption. He is now under house arrest.
 
The Burmese army normally resists the advance of an intelligence chief to its top post, but Khin Nyunt was an exception since he had the blessing of the late dictator Gen Ne Win, who was seen as godfather within the armed forces until the 1990s. If there is indeed a serious rift at the top between Maung Aye and Shwe Mann, it will therefore pose a real threat to the unity of the armed forces. An intervention by Than Shwe can be expected soon.
 
Than Shwe looked healthy enough at the Union Day ceremony o­n February 12, although his absence at the Independence Day observances o­n January 4 fuelled speculation that he may be dying of cancer.



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