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"He has to move on." Some critics suggest that holding a military-sponsored national convention may in fact be quite easy. "There is no shortage of opportunists in Burma," says veteran Rangoon politician Thakin Chan Htun. He adds that staunch supporters of the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA), the government’s henchmen, are everywhere. Several provincial heads of the USDA have voiced their support for the road map. Not surprisingly, perhaps, the chairman of the USDA is Than Shwe. As the government fortifies and popularizes the USDA, it has also been giving military training to civil servants. This had led analysts to believe that the government is preparing to put down dissent and fabricate riots should Burmese people take to the streets. Some skeptics even suspect that the junta has already engineered popular divisions. It is highly possible that last year’s Muslim riots were ultimately the work of government agents. As Foreign Minister Win Aung hinted at the Bangkok Forum, 2004 will be a busy year. But Burma watchers are still waiting for Rangoon to present tangible signs that real change is imminent. At 71, Than Shwe just wants to retire peacefully, to build dams and pagodas in the spirit of King Anawrahta. Some Burmese scholars say he wants to make sure his prime minister succeeds this year, so that Than Shwe and his trustworthy commanders will manage the armed forces while Khin Nyunt heads a new government. Over the last 15 years Burmese everywhere have longed for a democratic Burma, or even a meaningful handshake between the generals and Suu Kyi. So far, they’ve longed in vain. But they can be forgiven in light of the remarkable transformation of Southeast Asia’s political landscape during that time. In the Phillipines, Marcos fell; in Indonesia, the liberation of East Timor followed close upon the ouster of Suharto; and in Burma’s neighbor Thailand, democracy was restored in 1992. One might think that there would be a kind of democratic domino effect, and that Burma would be the next to topple. But the message from the generals remains unequivocal. Go ahead. Make democracy in Burma. A Spy Master Rising: Than Shwe backs Khin Nyunt By Aung Zaw Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt owes his rise to the late dictator Ne Win. But the strongman’s fall from grace before his death in December 2002 led foreign observers to predict Khin Nyunt’s own political demise would closely follow. Not so fast. Khin Nyunt may no longer be chief of Burma’s Military Intelligence, but as the new Director-General of the National Intelligence Bureau, which oversees all intelligence and Special Branch services in the country, the feared spy master won’t be looking for a new job anytime soon. Some Army factions and individual regional commanders are rumored to want Khin Nyunt’s road map for political progress to flop. But junta chairman Sr-Gen Than Shwe has backed the proposal. In his Independence Day speech in January, Than Shwe said, "The seven-point future political program of the nation has already been laid down to build a discipline-flourishing democratic nation, while maintaining the peace and stability of the State and the rule of law." Observers say such support has bolstered Khin Nyunt’s political standing, particularly as his "personal road map" has now become the government’s plan. As military advisor to Than Shwe, Khin Nyunt now has direct contact with the Senior General, reporting "truthfully" to him about the country’s problems, says a diplomatic source in Rangoon. "Khin Nyunt doesn’t need to go through Maung Aye anymore," the source explains. Deputy Chairman of the ruling junta Gen Maung Aye is ill and may retire soon. But analysts warn that if Khin Nyunt’s road map founders, his boss is ready to show the spy master the door.