As commanders of Burma's Tatmadaw, or armed forces, gather in Naypyidaw this week, observers say a reshuffle of top military positions and preparations for dry season operations in the country's restive north will likely be high on the agenda.
Burmese military sources said regional commanders, light infantry division commanders, regional operations commanders and military operations commanders are in the capital for their second triannual meeting since the new “civilian” government of President Thein Sein was sworn in and Gen Min Aung Hlaing was named commander in chief in March.
The sources said informal meetings were held on Saturday and Sunday, but Lt-Gen Aung Than Htut, the chief of the Bureau of Special Operations (BSO) 2, which oversees the North-East Regional, Eastern and Triangle Military Commands (RMCs), did not attend because of a recent intensification of fighting with the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in northern Shan State.
Ahead of the commanders meeting in Naypyidaw, military sources said three regional commanders were tipped for promotion to BSO chiefs. They are Maj-Gen Zayar Aung, commander of the Northern RMC in Myitkyina, Maj-Gen Aung Kyaw Zaw, commander of the Northeast RMC in Lashio, and Maj-Gen Soe Htut, commander of the Eastern RMC.
Brig-Gen Nyo Saw, the commandant of the Defense Services Academy, and Brig-Gen Ko Ko Naing, the commandant of the Defense Services Medical Academy, were also tipped to be promoted as regional commanders for the Southern and Northern RMCs, respectively.
Some commanders, such as Brig-Gen Tun Than, the former Rangoon regional military commander, and Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe, chief of BSO-5, were forced to resign in the past two months after the last four-monthly meeting in May.
“Some military leaders will swap positions and some vacancies will be filled by promotions,” said Aung Lynn Htut, a former counterintelligence officer who observes Burmese military affairs from Washington.
Another item likely to be high on the agenda of the commanders meeting is the ongoing armed conflicts in northern and eastern Burma, where government troops are fighting the KIA, the Shan State Army and the Karen National Union.
“We expect they will discuss armed conflicts with ethnic groups, including the KIA, at the coming meeting,” said a KIA officer at the War Office in the group's headquarters of Laiza, speaking on condition of anonymity. He added that the Northern RMC in Myitkyina is scheduled to submit a report about the conflict with the KIA.
“We heard Lt-Gen Soe Win [the deputy commander in chief of the armed forces and the commander in chief of the army] came to Myitkyina and even oversaw the report on the conflict, since he is the former commander of the Northern RMC,” he added.'
An executive officer of an NGO in Rangoon who is close to military commanders said that the coming dry season, when most major offensives are usually launched, will be “number one on the agenda.”
Another issue that is likely to be discussed at the meeting is the Tatmadaw's plans to create a new RMC based in Tanaing, near the border with India, a move that has been planned since late last year. Another new RMC proposed at the same time, the Middle-East Regional Military Command in Shan State, is already in operation.
The purpose of the new regional command in Tanaing, in western Kachin State, could be to strategically divide KIA troops from the east to the west, said Aung Lynn Htut.
Although there are currently Burmese troops stationed in the area, KIA Brigade 3 is also active there. In 1988, KIA troops seized the government military post in Tanaing.
According to military sources, Soe Win was in Tanaing earlier this month to check the location ahead of this week's meeting of Tatmadaw commanders.
There is also speculation that the creation of the new RMC could be aimed at countering Indian insurgent groups based along the Indo-Burmese border, as part of an agreement between the Burmese and Indian armies.
However, some observers saw this as unlikely. “I don't think the purpose is to counter Indian insurgents. The Burmese military and Indian insurgent groups have good secret relations. The Burmese won't fight the Naga, who provide a buffer between India and Burma,” said Aung Lynn Htut.