Suu Kyi’s Next Move

Suu Kyi steps into the fray at a time when the NLD desperately requires fresh ideas and strong leadership

After keeping Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for more than seven continuous years, on Nov. 13, less than one week after holding a highly controversial general election, the Burmese military regime finally freed her.

The international community joined Burmese at home and abroad in welcoming Suu Kyi back from political and social isolation. The junta leaders, on the other hand, treated the release as if they had just pardoned a convicted criminal. Nothing more, nothing less.

While the release was labeled “unconditional,” many skeptics asked the question: how long can the pro-democracy figurehead enjoy her freedom before being locked up again? If Suu Kyi tests the limits of how far she can push forward in her quest for justice, freedom and democracy, sooner or later she will cross an invisible line that marks the threshold of Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s patience.

Nobel Peace Prize laureate Suu Kyi has been arrested, convicted and detained so many times by now that even Burma’s military-run courts may have run out of excuses for imprisoning her one more time.

There is a very real fear throughout the country that Suu Kyi may be assassinated.

New Parliament, Same Old Government

Suu Kyi is entering into a new political arena, and faces a mountain of challenges. Naypyidaw will soon open the doors of its newly constructed parliament building and host a freshly appointed government and president, all convened under the terms of a new constitution.

Despite all the benchmarks for a fresh start, few observers doubt that the opposition, and Suu Kyi in particular, will continue to be ignored by the junta.

The pro-democracy voices among the international community are also impatient—they urgently require an end to the ongoing political stalemate, and if that means shifting policy toward engagement with the incoming “civilian” government, then that’s just what they’ll do.

Washington, the most consistently vocal critic of the Burmese regime, has suddenly done a 180-degree turn on its policy of isolating the generals, and has instead adopted a new approach based on “direct engagement.” This approach is similar to that of several (but not all) European governments that have long advocated engaging the regime and providing more aid inside Burma, while at the same time maintaining sanctions on the ruthless military elite and their cronies.

Changing NLD’s Old Guard

Suu Kyi’s first task is to put her own house in order.

It was recently revealed by WikiLeaks that US diplomatic dispatches attributed the scathing internal criticism of the National League for Democracy’s (NLD’s) senior leadership to their failure to work with 88 Generation Students leaders in 2007 while Buddhist monks were leading nationwide anti-government protests.

“Repeated overtures from and ‘summits’ with the leaders of the 88 Generation in 2007 failed to result in any significant cooperation between the factions,” the cable said, adding that although Suu Kyi remained a popular and beloved figure among most Burmese, this status is not enjoyed by her party.

“Already frustrated with the sclerotic leadership of the elderly NLD ‘Uncles,’ the party lost even more credibility within the pro-democracy movement when its leaders refused to support the demonstrators last September, and even publicly criticized them,” wrote Leslie Hayden, the political and economic affairs chief of the US embassy in Rangoon, in a report in July 2008.

The WikiLeaks cables helped underline what many disenfranchised NLD members have been saying for a long time, which is that, during the 2007 Saffron Revolution, the party leadership under the control of controversial Chairman Aung Shwe remained aloof and distant from the protesters. Aung Shwe and his advisers were known for an extremely cautious approach toward the regime. His move to register the NLD for the election was thwarted and he has since turned his back on the party.

Instead of reaching out to technically sophisticated bloggers and young, Internet-savvy activists, “the Uncles spend endless hours discussing their entitlements from the 1990 elections and abstract policy which they are in no position to enact,” the cable said.

“Additionally, most MPs-elect show little concern for the social and economic plight of most Burmese, and therefore, most Burmese regard them as irrelevant,” it added.

Party sources have told The Irrawaddy that the release in late 2008 of Win Tin, a founding member of the NLD and an outspoken critic of the regime, reinvigorated the party.