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When the announcement last week that Thailand’s Army Commander-in-Chief Gen Surayaud Chulanont would be kicked upstairs to the largely ceremonial post of Armed Forces Supreme Commander, it signaled a diplomatic coup for the generals in Rangoon. Many analysts point to the controversial reshuffle as further proof that Thailand is softening its stance towards Burma’s military junta. And now, rumors are circulating that Bangkok may be ready to send yet another sign of appeasement to the generals. Now, Thailand’s Task Force 399 may be preparing to throw in the towel in its efforts to stem the flow of drugs, particularly methamphetamines, from Burma into the kingdom. Task Force 399, comprised of Thai Special Forces, Border Patrol Police, army infantries and a group of US Special Forces, was designed to tackle drug traffickers in Thailand. But allegations have surfaced that cross-border excursions into territory controlled by the United Wa State Army—an ally of Rangoon that is accused of manufacturing the millions of methamphetamine pills that flood Thailand each year—has violated Burma’s sovereignty. Thailand firmly denied the claims. "This could be the last step in the removal of Surayud and Gen Wattanachai [Chaimuanwong] from the scene," says Sunai Pasuk, a political analyst at Forum-Asia, a Bangkok-based human rights organization. "It could be an example of horse-trading, the forcing of a compromise before the final military reshuffle in October." Gen Wattanachai was a classmate of Gen Surayud and commander of Thailand’s northern-based Third Army from 1999-2001 where he took a tough approach towards Burmese troops who infringed upon Thailand’s territorial sovereignty. Sunai added that the rumor could have surfaced in order to discredit those behind military reshuffle and to test the waters of public opinion before the annual military reshuffle takes effect on Oct 1. The move to disband the anti-drug task force belies Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s avowed get-tough stance against drugs at home. It may also face stiff resistance from some of the most powerful and respected figures in the kingdom. A Thai analyst close to the military said that Privy Councilor and former prime minister Prem Tinsulanond could be opposed to the move as the task force represents Thailand’s frontline in the war against drugs. Others close to Prem are rumored to favor keeping the 399 unit intact. Task Force 399 was formed by Gen Surayud under the previous administration of Chuan Leekpai, but remained out of the public eye until US forces joined in April of last year following the conclusion of the Cobra Gold joint military exercises. Another source close to military officials said that to counter the dispersal of Task Force 399, officers allied with Gen Surayud would have to show that Burma is still complicit in the drug trade. Panitan Wattanyagorn, a lecturer in international affairs in Chulalongkorn University’s Faculty of Political Science in Bangkok, believed that other operations could be created along the border to fill the void if the task force is disbanded. "They may reshuffle some officers, or change the name of the operation, but the primary task remains the same: oppression, interception and arresting drug smugglers. They can not afford to stop these activities." Although he said that certain changes along the Thai-Burmese border are inevitable, the extent and exact nature of those changes will not be clear until the new army chief takes over and all officers assume their new positions in October. "Who would issue that directive? Surayud is still the army chief and that directive would have to be issued by high-ranking officers," Panitan said. For the generals in Rangoon, Task Force 399 became a sticking point in forging stronger bilateral relations, he added. A source from the US Embassy in Bangkok denied the rumors and said that the idea was merely raised at a regular government briefing for journalists a few weeks ago. Last month, the Far Eastern Economic Review reported that US officials in Bangkok said Task Force 399 was already winding down its activities, primarily due to budget constraints. Gen Surayaud’s successor, the respected career soldier Gen Somdhat Attanand, has officially vowed to toe the government line to accelerate the healing process between Thailand and Burma, which has included high-level bilateral visits between the two countries in recent months.