Explosive Uncertainty
covering burma and southeast asia
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Magazine

ARTICLE

Explosive Uncertainty


By WAI MOE AUGUST, 2010 - VOL.18 NO.8


Firefghters carry an injured person to an ambulance after three bombs explode in Rangoon during Burmese new year’s festivities on april 15.(Photo: REUTERS)
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If the ethnic armies came under fire on their home turf, it would not be difficult for them to take the fight to their enemy.

“If the cease-fire agreement breaks down, this time the civil war will be fought not only in ethnic areas but also in towns and cities near the heart of the military command’s headquarters,” said a source from one ethnic cease-fire group, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Already, there is evidence that tensions in ethnic cease-fire areas are erupting in ways that could bode ill for stability in the rest of the country. On April 17, a series of bombs exploded at the project site of the Myitsone dam, near the Kachin State capital of Myitkyina. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a cease-fire group that is active in the area, denied responsibility for the blasts, which reportedly killed four people, but linked the attack to the BGF issue.

“If it were us, we would have done it to the Burma Army soldiers,” said a senior KIA officer quoted by the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News, adding that the blast “was likely their own handiwork and the blame was placed on us because we rejected [the Burmese regime’s] BGF program.”  

The idea that the regime itself is responsible for many of the attacks attributed to dissidents or insurgents is not a new one, and not entirely unfounded. Burma’s ruling generals are experts in psychological warfare and have a history of using trumped-up threats to stability as a pretext for imposing draconian laws. Many analysts say that with an election looming, the junta may use the  recent bombings as an excuse to introduce an anti-terrorism law that would further restrict the activities of opposition parties.

“Believe it or not, most people in Burma are saying that government agents are behind all of these incidents. They say that on the morning of April 15, the authorities told medical staff  at Rangoon’s public hospitals to be on standby,” said Naing Aung, the former chairman of the ABSDF and secretary-general of the Forum for Democracy in Burma.

Even if one dismisses such claims as conspiracy theories with little evidence to support them, there is good reason to believe that the regime has spawned its own breed of terrorists. When Khin Nyunt was forced to “retire” in 2004 and placed under house arrest, many of his subordinates received far worse treatment. A handful of ex-MI agents are believed to have escaped the purge, however, and are regarded by some as the likeliest suspects in a May 2005 bombing in Rangoon that left 19 people dead and 162 injured, in the bloodiest and most sophisticated terrorist attack to hit Burma in decades.

Border-based sources say that these rogue MI agents are still active and preparing for even deadlier acts of revenge. As they and other groups seek to exploit weaknesses in the regime’s armor, Burma’s cities risk becoming battlegrounds in an increasingly dirty war. But given the junta’s demonstrated disregard for innocent lives, it is hard to see what an escalation of violence against soft targets is likely to accomplish, apart from deepening the misery of Burma’s already hard-pressed population.

Bomb Chronology—2006 to Present

April 28, 2010
A bomb blast at the Loikaw Township Police Station in Karenni State kills one person and injures four others.

April 27, 2010
Three bombs explode at the Thaukyaykhat Hydro-power Dam Project in Taungoo Township, Pegu Division, injuring four people. Another blast at the Telecommunications Office in Kyaikmayaw Township, Mon State, injures three people.

April 17, 2010
Ten bombs explode at the Myitsone Hydro-power Dam Project in Myitkyina, Kachin State; one person is injured.

April 15, 2010
Three bombs at the X2O Pavilion on Kandawgyi Bell Road in Rangoon kill 10 people and injure more than 170 others.

April 14, 2010
A bomb explodes at the No. 3 Checkpoint on the way to Myawaddy, Karen State, injuring two people. Another blast reported at the Asia World Toll Gate (105-Mile) in Muse Township, Shan State; no reports of casualties.

Feb 19, 2010
Two bombs go off at the Kawkareik Market in Kawkareik Township, Karen State, killing one person and injuring two others.

Feb 15, 2010
A bomb explodes in front of the Drug Museum in Laukkaing Township, Shan State, killing one person and injuring several others.

Dec 16, 2009
A bomb explodes during Karen New Year’s celebrations in Phapon, Karen State, killing seven people and injuring 11 others.

Sept 16-17, 2009
Seven small bombs explode at various locations on the outskirts of Rangoon; no casualties reported.



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