The constitution's Article 369, Chapter 8, stipulates “Subject to this Constitution and relevant laws, every citizen has the right to elect and right to be elected to the Pyithu Hluttaw, the Amyotha Hluttaw, and the Region or State Hluttaw.”
Yet this ominous and conflicting condition—“Subject to this Constitution and relevant laws”—actually encompasses a wide range of provisions that would criminalize the democracy icon, and also prevent many dissidents from contesting the elections.
Specifically, Article 121 of the constitution, under the section “Disqualification for the Pyithu Hluttaw Representatives,” has five sub-sections, of which sub-sections a, b and e would apply to many dissidents, including Suu Kyi.
Sub-section (a) disqualifies “a person serving prison term, having been convicted by the Court concerned for having committed the offence.” As predicted earlier, Suu Kyi will still be under detention at the time of an election, rendering her ineligible to stand, even if she tries to register her candidacy.
Sub-section (b) deals with members of parliament who were disqualified from the (previous) Hluttaw and sub-section (e) is about elected candidates who owe allegiance to a foreign government, are subject to or a citizen of a foreign government.
Unlike in 1990, Suu Kyi is no longer married to a foreigner so her candidacy cannot be rejected on this basis. But these three sweeping categorizations disqualify her and all political prisoners, most notably the leaders of the 88 Student Generation group such as Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi as well as candidates elected in 1990 but who who have been disqualified for one reason or another over the past 20 years.
In the final analysis, however, politics is the art of possible. And in Burma, everything finally depends on Snr-Gen Than Shwe. If he can cut a deal with Suu Kyi regarding her role under the new polity or if he no longer sees her as a threat, she could be released.
Last November, Min Lwin, a high-ranking official in Burma’s Foreign Ministry, told the news agency AP in Manila: "There is a plan to release her soon ... so she can organize her party.”
Even if this daring pronouncement comes true, Suu Kyi's candidacy in the 2010 election would be very doubtful—but I hope I am wrong.