Burma’s paramount leader may be an unknown figure to most, but he has shown his leadership mettle

The Burmese hardly know their paramount leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe. His former close friends knew him as an honest and simple soldier. But even if he lacks charisma and possesses few rounded leadership skills today, he has an iron grip on power.

Lately there has been a proliferation of tales and rumors about him and his family, though reliable sources have trouble verifying them. The reclusive Than Shwe rarely meets journalists, and the government releases only snippets of news about his and his family’s activities.

Rumor has it that Than Shwe acts like a king, and his daughters order military officers to treat them like royalty. Some insiders say he wants to be remembered as a benevolent king. The 72-year-old general is known to bear a grudge against the regime’s main opponent Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been under house arrest on and off since 1989. Just the mention of her name is said to send him into tantrums.

Domestically, Than Shwe is said to like watching Chinese Shaolin martial art movies, and his favorite grandsons are treated like contenders. He occasionally plays golf, a pastime favored by military brass, including his late predecessor Ne Win.

But there are some hard facts breaking through the wall of silence around Burma’s paramount leader. Born in 1933 in Kyaukse, Mandalay Division, Than Shwe joined the army aged 20. Before that he was a lowly postal clerk. A year later, he attended the Officer Training School as an Intake 9 student and became an army officer before enrolling in the civilian Institute of Central Politics. In 1958 he was attached to the army’s psychological warfare department.

CHURNING OUT THAN SHWE’S PORTRAITS: Cult in the making?

He was a member of Ne Win’s ruling Burma Socialist Program Party, or BSPP, where he became a central executive committee member in 1988. Analysts note his political thinking today is still very much in the style of the old BSPP. For instance he set up a BSPP-style Union Solidarity Development Association, of which he became chairman. He also convened a National Convention in 1993, ostensibly to draft a constitution. But the convention has yet to achieve anything.

During the long BSPP era, Than Shwe was known as a faithful anti-reformist. But while the party only nominally embraced socialism, he is known to be a strong believer in the ideology.

In 1985, Than Shwe became deputy commander-in-chief of the army and deputy defense minister. Three years later he became deputy chairman of the ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC, which replaced the BSPP. Then in 1992 he became chairman of the new ruling State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC.

There is no record of his ever traveling to a western country. Now, he would not be allowed to go even if he wanted to. Than Shwe and other high ranking officials in the regime face visa bans imposed by western countries.

After his appointment as leader, Than Shwe held a series of secret cabinet meetings. They were known as nya kyaung, or night school, because they took place at night. Than Shwe, of course, was “headmaster.” At these meetings, the general reportedly made careful and calculated policy decisions about the course of the country and the armed forces. Some generals who attend the nya kyaung now hold senior jobs with the junta. For instance, Lt-Gen Thein Sein, now SPDC’s Secretary One, and Lt-Gen Khin Maung Than, a senior SPDC member and a leading official in the Defense Ministry, were among those who regularly showed up at Than Shwe’s night school in the early 1990s.

He is married to an ethnic Pa-O, Daw Kyaing Kyaing. Many friends who knew them in the 1980s recall that Than Shwe’s family were unusually modest at the time. Like many other superstitious generals— particularly Ne Win—and their families, Than Shwe and his wife are known to seek advice from astrologers and monks. Unlike Ne Win’s family, Than Shwe’s sons and daughters have not been actively involved in big business.

However, Than Shwe’s son, Kyaing San Shwe, and his wife are known to dabble in business. They run the Classic International Company, involved in construction and making iron grills. The son is also thought to be involved in the illegal gambling business.

The Than Shwe family is also well connected with a young Burmese tycoon, Te Za (sometimes written Teza). The businessman, 40, is President and Managing Director of Htoo Trading Company, a major player in Burma’s tourism, logging, real estate and hotel and housing development industries.

Since 1993, he has also been involved in the arms industry. His Myanmar Avia Export is the country’s sole representative of Russia’s Export Military Industrial Group, which makes aircraft parts, and helicopter-maker Rostvertol. He was instrumental in helping the junta buy MiG-29 fighters and helicopters from Russia.

Than Shwe’s eldest daughter is also the talk of the town as Te Za’s apparent girlfriend. And Te Za is supposed to have arranged Singapore shopping trips for the general’s wife, Daw Kyaing Kyaing.

Than Shwe and his wife Daw Kyaing Kyaing pose in front of a Buddhist shrine near Patna, during a visit to India in October 2004

Although one of Than Shwe’s main reasons for removing Khin Nyunt was his alleged corruption, he has turned a blind eye to close allies considered unusually wealthy. Three such friends, Lt-Gen Maung Bo, Lt-Gen Ye Myint and Industry Minister Aung Thaung are, according to western diplomats, notoriously corrupt, and unusually wealthy despite their relatively modest army salaries. But Than Shwe has ignored the reports, perhaps considering personal loyalty more important.

Than Shwe was also agriculture minister under SLORC, and this is where he developed a fascination for building dams. In Kyaukse, his birthplace, he has built schools, hospitals, factories, a university and an international airport.

The general is untutored in international affairs, and his understanding of diplomacy has been questionable. But so far he has managed to keep good relations with neighboring countries. He officially sticks to a “neutral” foreign policy, but under his rule Burma is regarded as becoming more of a stooge of China. The neighboring power has remained one of the few countries supplying the junta with arms, diplomatic support and aid.

Than Shwe also plays the India card. The junta now receives loans from both rival neighboring powers. New Delhi initially supported Suu Kyi and the Burmese democracy movement for some years. But it has now noticeably toned this down. Insiders say Than Shwe plays China and India off against each other to secure loans and assistance, including for his birthplace Kyaukse.

For trade and strategic reasons, the two giants have an interest in keeping Burma’s military leadership intact. But China clearly wants to retain its Big Brother status with Burma.

A few days after he sacked prime minister and military intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt last October, Than Shwe went to India. New Delhi rolled out the red carpet for him. While India undoubtedly wants to keep Burma out of China’s orbit, the Chinese are stepping up their efforts to gain access to the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea via Burma.

Analysts noted Beijing was concerned about the removal of Khin Nyunt, widely seen as pro-China. At the same time, Than Shwe has no wish to upset the Chinese leadership, Burma’s main ally and benefactor. Gen Shwe Mann, a leading junta figure, was dispatched on an unannounced visit to Beijing the following month. Prime Minister Soe Win also made several trips to China during the year.

Than Shwe’s last visit to Beijing was in 2003. He secured new loans and generally bolstered bilateral relations. After his trip, his stance toward Suu Kyi noticeably hardened, analysts noted. During the recent tsunami crisis, which also affected Burma, Rangoon turned down bilateral aid from foreign governments but accepted it from China.

As a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, Than Shwe is likely to try to maintain friendly relations with neighboring Thailand and other countries in the region. Importantly, in 2006 Burma is going to take over Asean’s rotating chairmanship. It will therefore host numerous Asean official meetings. There has been pressure both from within and outside Asean to hold these meetings in other member countries if the junta still refuses to move towards political reform.

Yet analysts believe Rangoon is in no hurry to bow to external pressure to move toward reforms. Some analysts even question whether Burma still wants to be a member of Asean. In or out of the regional grouping, Rangoon can generally expect little trouble from its neighbors, while relations with the United States and other western countries will remain rocky.

Apart from its economic and political sanctions against the regime, the US can be expected to remain the biggest vocal critic of the regime. Only last month, Condoleezza Rice made a statement during her Senate confirmation hearing naming Burma as an “outpost of tyranny.” In her statement, Rice lumped Burma in with other countries it considers pariah states: North Korea, Iran, Cuba, Belarus and Zimbabwe.

Observers feel the new label will make Than Shwe a bit anxious—not that he will lose any sleep over it. He should be aware that Burma is not at the top of the US global hit-list. And he can point to the ongoing National Convention, supposed to be drawing up a new constitution, and even free Suu Kyi if pressure mounts significantly.

While the country is in a state of political and economic despair, Than Shwe has been quietly consolidating personal power, despite earlier reports that he was ill and about to retire. All things considered, the former postal clerk has done quite well. He is not regarded as cold-blooded, but he has taken calculated risks to pre-empt trouble—and if he perceives any threat from within the Tatmadaw, or armed forces, he has shown he can be ruthless.

He deals with any hint of trouble in the Tatmadaw in much the same way as Ne Win before him. Ne Win would remove anyone he believed to be disobedient, disloyal or becoming popular enough to be a potential rival. Than Shwe has followed exactly the same path. In this, he has exercised a famous Burmese saying: kyu-bin-koke-kyu-ngok-ma-kyan-zeya. That means if you remove reeds you should take out everything, not even leaving stumps that could sprout again. Thus when Khin Nyunt was purged, many of his associates went with him, and even those with links to the general face an uncertain fate.

Under Than Shwe, the Tatmadaw is no longer accountable to the people and the nation. The armed forces are not protecting or serving the people, but simply propping up a group of warlords while clinging to power themselves. Burmese society is still feudal, with no rules for succession.

Than Shwe may have overstayed his welcome at the top. But there are no signs he is about to give up his throne.