On Thursday, Burma's President Thein Sein’s delivered a speech before Parliament to mark the anniversary of his government's first year in power. The speech, which was broadcast live on the state-run MRTV television station, was generally well-received by most Burmese. However, some longtime political observers were more skeptical, noting that the president appeared to be papering over a number of issues that could undermine his efforts to deliver further reforms.

In his address to Parliament, Thein Sein stressed the need to strengthen the rule of law, encourage the growth of the private sector, and improve Burma's basic infrastructure. But in addition to pointing to future goals, he also acknowledged mistakes of the past. 
 
“Our people have suffered under various governments and different systems and the people will judge our government based on its actual achievements,” he said, referring to the incarnations of military rule that have dominated Burma for the past half-century.

He also surprised many by mentioning the political aspirations of Burma's ethnic minorities, an issue that has resulted in more than six decades of unresolved conflict.

“As our country is a Union nation, we must let all ethnic minorities get equally involved in the political process,” he said. “It is necessary that we, the current government, help to end the misunderstanding and mistrust between ethnic groups and the government.”

In one of the more unexpected turns in his speech, Thein Sein also mentioned the desire of many young ethnic soldiers to possess weapons better suited to the Information Age.

“According to a young ethnic armed leader, young ethnic armed people aged 18 and 19 often say they also want to hold laptops, computers. I was very sad to hear this. I have decided to eliminate all these misfortunes during my administration,” he said.
 
Thein Sein also denied the existence of “hardliner” and “reformist” factions in his new government, in response to speculation by political observers that there are severe divisions in his administration.

In fact, many senior officials in the government have told visiting officials and journalists that the government is deeply divided and in many cases unable to move its reform process forward because many cabinet ministers are sitting on the fence.

The president, who is widely regarded as the least corrupt member of the former junta that handed over power last year, is known to be a good listener who pays due attention to all conflicting opinions and voices. However, this may not be enough to deal with those within his administration who continue to resist any movement toward change.

Increasingly, these conservative elements (including many former army generals) are nervous about the resurgence of the democratic opposition and the growing role of civil society groups. This clique is also unhappy about the release of prominent political prisoners and the demands of some ethnic armies for the withdrawal of Burmese troops from border areas as a precondition for reaching a ceasefire agreement.

Any one of these developments—and especially the last—could easily be seized upon by the hardliners as a pretext for reversing reforms in the name of “national security.” Sidelining Thein Sein and his relatively small group of fellow reformers would not be difficult, particularly considering that he is already 67 and has ruled out any political role beyond Burma's next election in 2015. 

This may be why Aung San Suu Kyi has repeatedly emphasized that Burma is still far from the point of no return.

“Ultimate power still rests with the army, so until we have the army solidly behind the process of democratization we cannot say that we have got to a point where there will be no danger of a U-turn,” she told students of Canada's Carleton University via videolink earlier this week.

“Many people are beginning to say that the democratization process here is irreversible. It's not so,” she added.

If the president really wants to put Burma permanently on the path to reform, he will soon have to take decisive action against those within his own ranks who are opposed to his long-term goals. Words and goodwill will only take him so far.