According to recent news reports, Burmese democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has reportedly told the court that her trial is a test of the military-run legal system. Some opposition figures and Burmese media—especially Burmese language foreign broadcasts—toe the line in making this legality issue a big deal.

They are wrong. It is by no means a test case for the rule of law in Burma, which is virtually non-existent.

Without any balance of power in the state institutions, putting faith in the rule of law and expecting justice are at best illusory. The opposition should not pick or prolong the battle within the junta's institutions, including the judicial system, which the regime effectively controls through the appointment of senior judges and direct interventions.

The legal system is one of the most corrupted institutions serving the perpetuation of the regime. As a serial liar and rule-breaker, the junta knows well how to manipulate its institutions against Suu Kyi and other opponents. Even if Suu Kyi were freed tomorrow, it would have nothing to do with judicial independence and rule of law in military-ruled Burma. It would be political calculation. This whole affair should be viewed from a political perspective, not through a legal lens.

Thus, the true test in the Suu Kyi trial is whether or not and to what extent the junta is susceptible to international pressure; in other words, whether or not the international pressure yields the intended result. If it does, a close examination should be made to understand when and how it worked.

Some influential Burma experts, foreign diplomats and even increasing numbers of journalists repeatedly claim that coercive diplomacy does not press the isolated and xenophobic Burmese military junta to make any changes. Pressure does not work. The regime is insular, claim these pundits.

The Burmese court that postponed its verdict on Suu Kyi until August 11 may tell a different story. Some sources inside Burma, however, suggest that the junta may delay the verdict again on Tuesday by citing the ill health and hospitalization of John Yettaw, the intruder who is also standing trial.

Indonesian Foreign Affairs Minister Hassan Wirajuda recently told the media that he hoped the postponement of the verdict was due to the Burmese government’s concern over international reaction, particularly from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

In fact, before the expected decision on July 31, UN chief Ban Ki-moon had pressed for the immediate release of Suu Kyi during a meeting with Burma's UN ambassador, a UN spokesman said. Ban Ki-moon warned that by sentencing Suu Kyi to another prison term, the Burmese junta would "miss a very important opportunity to engage with the international community, and they will be betraying the expectations and wishes of all the international community who really want to see Myanmar [Burma] fully integrated as a member of the international community."

These pressures appear to have serious effects on the calculation of Sen-Gen Than Shwe, the paramount dictator of the regime, who has shown some indecisiveness in this final episode of the show trial.

However, it is not the first time that the military shows its susceptibility to international pressure. For instance, in 2005 the junta faced mounting pressure from the West and some Asean countries to give up the Asean chairmanship in 2006. The United States and the European Union openly declared that they would boycott all Asean meetings if Burma took chairmanship. Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong travelled to Burma and expressed his deep concern about the possible implication of Burma's chairmanship on Asean.

The pressures then affected the regime. Despite the fact that the regime had already established a "Steering Committee for the Preparation of Holding the Asean Summit," chaired by the prime minister, to reap international PR gains, and also enjoyed China's backing to assume the chairmanship, the military eventually decided to give up its entitlement. It would be unthinkable for the presumptuous and overbearing Burmese military to give in to outside pressures and take diplomatic embarrassment. (In fact, the self-righteousness and uncompromising pride is a trait that many Burmese prone to share with the ruling generals.) Most interestingly, the generals who made such concessions were known as "hardliners," since "moderate" Gen Khin Nyunt had already been purged in 2004.