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Choosing the Right Battle Strategy
By MIN ZIN Saturday, June 13, 2009


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By picking the right battle strategy, David was able to strike down Goliath with a slingshot and use his powerful sword to slay the giant. The rule of thumb is to choose fighting strength against weakness, and not strength against strength.

The regime's weakness lies on its international flank, especially its regional neighbors. The junta is also sensitive to the opinions of military officers and rank and file. These are the targets the Lady must hit repeatedly and relentlessly.

Aung San Suu Kyi believes that political integrity (i.e. "plain honesty in politics") is one of the most important virtues. She and many others regard the political integrity she upholds persistently as her strength. Perfect armor!

However, she has to comprehend the strength of her captors, too. The Lady cannot pick or prolong the battle within the junta's institutions, including the legal system, which is one of the most corrupted instruments serving the perpetuation of the regime.

As a serial liar and rule-breaker, the junta knows well how to manipulate its institutions against Suu Kyi and other opponents. Force and fraud are their strength.

This strength must be continuously exposed internationally as well as to a domestic public, especially to the military rank and file. But it might not be the battle front the Lady wants to open.

Confronting the strength of the regime straight on, as the opposition has mostly done in past, will end up in another defeat. The asymmetrical power relationship is evidential.

Suu Kyi’s trial is another test of the opposition's strategic caliber. In fact, the trial is widely believed to be a sham. The verdict has already been reached in Snr-Gen Than Shwe's mind.

Although Suu Kyi’s latest, six-year term of house arrest ended in May, the regime's supremo is still afraid of freeing her to the embrace of her supporters and the public at large.

The 63-year-old Nobel laureate faces a maximum prison sentence of five years. She could be condemned to prison or sent home for a further term of house arrest.

Whatever the terms of her incarceration, it is clear that the regime’s aim is to confine her until it has secured victory in the 2010 general election.

This is a political battle ground. That's why the trial has drawn international condemnation, including from the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (Asean). The group warned the regime that "the honor and credibility of the Government of the Union of Myanmar are at stake".

Even Goh Chok Tong, a staunch ally of the regime and a former prime minister of Singapore, told Than Shwe during talks in Naypyidaw earlier this month that the trial has an international dimension.

Thus, the Lady must see the trial as a political battle. Instead of prolonging the trial, she must let the sham process get done and receive the prison sentence. That will intensify political battles in the international arena, including the UN Security Council and regional players.

The regime will no doubt face domestic challenges, too. The opposition National League for Democracy must also lead the political battle, instead of waiting for the result of the show trial.

If Suu Kyi allows the trial to drag on, she will give the regime a chance to project the impression of openness and due legal process. In fact, the junta has already derived advantage from Suu Kyi's appeal for four defense witnesses to be heard.

The lower District Court earlier disqualified all but one defense witness, but the Rangoon Divisional Court later ruled that a second witness could give testimony. With this concession, the junta might be quite satisfied in projecting the impression of a fair and independent legal process, though that will not have any effect on its final script.

More importantly, the protraction of the trial could reduce interest in the international media, as well as diplomatic pressures. Momentum always amasses two important sources of capital, which strategically-minded politicians should not squander—good timing and political good will.

That is why the court’s decision on Friday to postpone the trial until June 26 in order to hear the testimony of a Suu Kyi’s defense witness is not a good sign. In fact, Suu Kyi's lawyers requested the further adjournment since the defense witness has to come to court from southern Shan State, in the northeastern part of Burma.

Suu Kyi instructed her lawyers to continue the appeals process to allow more defense witnesses to be heard in the case as she wants "to see it through to the end as the ruling is legally wrong."

If the High Court upholds the lower courts' decision, the special court in Insein Prison may set a date sometime in July in which to deliver the verdict. The regime could still delay the verdict in order to ride out international pressure.



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COMMENTS (12)
 
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Kyin Ho Wrote:
18/06/2009
As we have all known for quite a long time, the old NLD leadership (before the release U Win Tin and Ko Min Ko Naing and the respected monks' revolution) against Than Shwe's regime was impotent. The NLD youth section aggressively spearheaded the right directions. We all want the NLD to understand that "if you cannot lead, you should sit aside and support those who are more competent and experienced to take full leadership. Daw ASSK has been under arrest and unable to do much and she was prohibited
to contact anybody except even Dr Tin Myo Win's limited visits.

This wake up call is already late--but it is never too late. Please keep on fighting vigorously--fighting for ASSK's life, to save
our culture, our country, our religions, and for over fifty million people's freedom from suffering and right to live with dignity.

Kyansitthar Wrote:
16/06/2009
Goliath was alone when David vanquished him.
Today Than Shwe has his big brother China behind him. Don't you guys know that?

And Daw Suu is practically alone.

Today, you are seeing people just paying lip service and issuing statements while she is being bullied and beaten.

I will bet my bottom dollar they will send their condolences and sorry notes when she finally bites the dust.

Trust me, Daw Suu's got no chance of freedom as long as the Reds are holding the veto weapon in the UNSC.

And the Reds will not abandon Than Shwe as long as he holds the reins in Burma.

And Obama is no George Bush, either.

Unless the US, EU, or UN can come up with a specific or substantial policy on Burma, Than Shwe will rule the day and hold sway not only in Burma but also in the region.

Burma will become just another province of China, and Daw Suu will go down as only a widow who gave her all for the people and got nothing in return other than a place in the history of the country. How sad!

LL Wrote:
16/06/2009
It is easy to be an armchair critic.

Many brains are better than one.

Suu Kyi is not allowed to discuss with her party members, lawyers or doctor.

Whatever battle Suu Kyi is playing, the regime has their own script to detain her.

The international community for human rights and UN and ASEAN and other bodies would be the most appropriate offices to help her release by helping change constitutions like non-interference, removing the countries which are holding veto power, taking action against unfair, ineffective governments which are killing, torturing and making starving, slaves and leaving their own country to survive in other lands by a body elected by all the leaders of the world.

Dialogue will never work with a deaf and ignorant junta. Action is needed. But how and when should be considered seriously now before Suu Kyi is tortured mentally and physically to death.

International pressure is necessary.

George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
15/06/2009
Than Shwe is dashing ahead to the 2010 elections and Daw Suu is standing in his way. Hence, the sham trial and the scripted verdict.
He knows that he is "untouchable" as long as China is wielding the veto weapon in the UNSC.
And the Reds need Than Shwe as he is instrumental in keeping their hold on Burma and their access to the Indian Ocean, not to mention the monopoly on the country's wealth.
The Reds will not let go Burma!
The international outrage and cries have served to add impetus on the monk murderer's resolve to vent anger and vengeance on Daw Suu only.
The NLD has no battle strategy, nor do the US and the UN, not to mention ASEAN and others.
Until and unless the US mainly can come up with a specific and effective policy on Burma, the monk murderer will continue his rule and the Reds will hold the world hostage.
The world will inherit the Dragon Dance played on Than Shwe's tune.
And the Widow will remain helpless and ultimately rot in a dingy cell somewhere in Burma.

timothy Wrote:
14/06/2009
I watched the BBC news this morning and was caught by one of the comments about the muted response from the West to criticize Iranian President Ahmadinejad for high handednes in suppressing discontent amongst opposition supporters.
A reporter said the leaders in the West would rather be happy that President Ahmadinejad has quickly swept things under carpet. The west needs a stable oil producing Iran and does not want to rock the boat.
Essentially, the West is part and parcel of President Ahmadnejad's Iran.
China is also part and parcel of Gen Than Shwe`s regime. I could understand the reason why China is defending the Junta. Can the West ignore Burma and become friends of China (and Than Shwe)? It is time for the west to change tactics. They have to team up with Japan and Asean5 (Thailand, Singapore, Philippine, Malaysia and Indonesia) to become friends of the people of Burma and leave out China (and the UN Security Council).

Tom Tun Wrote:
14/06/2009
Henery David Thoreau, who is the original owner of the idea of Gandhi nonviolent struggle onec wrote, "Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth". If a person under house is rearrested because of the intruder, where is the truth? Who is guiltier than the intruder and the guard? Yet, the detainees is on the trial. If the Burmese justice system let this stupidity get written on the history books with a guilty verdict, it will be very difficult to explain to the coming generation for what happened. In democracy, everyone makes their own decision. No one is forced or guide to make decision. Deciplinary democracy is the political system that tyrants use ram their interests down the throats of the Burmese public. If the Burmese people let this chance go, there will be another generation down the road who will pay the price. We are the generation to fix the flaw, not to reinvent a new one. Only truth and openess will save the future. The regime must accept open dialogue in the international eye.

Myint Thein,Dallas Wrote:
13/06/2009
Excellent & Accurate Analysis. Min Zin is one of the best young Burmese journalists.

MyoChitThuNYC Wrote:
13/06/2009
The Junta is prolonging the trial to cause the international pressure to dissipate.

Peter Hunt Wrote:
13/06/2009
It is sad to see Burmese people still believing in the political strategy to change Burma, and still wanting to try after 21 + years with ineffective methods? Perfect armor is on the regime's side. David and the Achilles heel are in myths. The regime does not care about any political means, except matching power with power. Only then you can start negotiation. Wake up. Find different strategies.

Okkar Wrote:
13/06/2009
Min Zin is seriously out of touch with reality. It is not as if Su Kyi is in a position to demand the trial to be shorter! The author is much like other opposition supporters, who live in their own fantasy bubbles and have no sense and sensibility towards the reality of the situation in Burma. No wonder opposition groups are still roaming in the wilderness!

e.r. Wrote:
13/06/2009
Perfectly put, Min Zin.
To conduct a legal battle where there's no rule of law is completely useless and counterproductive. Unfortunately this is (another) missed chance for the opposition to raise the level of the political battle against the regime. It was quite clear since the disappointing ASSK's examination in the courtroom at the end of May. She could have spoken for all the voiceless. For some reason, she choose not to do it.

timothy Wrote:
13/06/2009
It is very interesting to read Min Zin`s article. Daw Su is very sincere and mature to state that something good can come out of this misfortune. She is also teaching the Burmese population and the military`s rank and file about tolerance (civilisation) and putting the bad behavior of the junta under the global spotlight. The junta had to follow the teaching of Daw Su to allow Defence witnesses to come to court. The junta is learning unwillingly about the legal court proceedings under the heat of global attention. The Junta is in trouble. Why did they join ASEAN decades ago? they signed the Asean Charter and agreed the transparency and accountability. They are trying to convene the election without the NLD in 2010. They had put themselves under spotlight. The leaders lack good advisers and are always committing political suicide. For the Junta it is the final nail in the coffin. That is my prediction. This is the battle between the learned David and uneducated Goliath.

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