Papering Over the Cracks

The man considered most capable of wresting power from Snr-Gen Than Shwe is finding himself ever more marginalized

By Aung Zaw

Maung Aye’s former classmates remember him as a schoolyard brawler who would return to class smiling and looking as though butter would not melt in his mouth. Now 67, the smile has gone and many are wondering whether he still has the stomach for a fight.

As the Burmese junta’s second-in-command and army commander, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye represents the biggest threat to Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s leadership. Were high-ranking officials to decide the aging chief was no longer the best man for the job, Maung Aye would be the obvious replacement. Despite confidence that he could stage a successful coup whenever he chose, however, Maung Aye has reportedly dismissed the idea.

Than Shwe and his deputy certainly saw eye to eye when they removed prime minister and intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt from power in October 2004. They both felt that he was being groomed by Western and regional governments to be a future Burma leader, and thus represented a threat to their own positions.

Such unity, however, is rare, and rumors persist that the two are at loggerheads.

In fact, Maung Aye’s star has long been on the wane—especially since the death of one of his closest allies, fourth-in-command Lt-Gen Tin Oo, in a helicopter crash in early 2001. And while he still enjoys the support of many regional commanders, their influence has been scaled back in recent years and they no longer hold seats on the ruling council.

The general’s assumed ambition—to take over Than Shwe’s position as head of the armed forces—looks likely to be thwarted. The regime typically grants this prestigious position to those in their mid-fifties, not aging generals pushing 70. Who eventually gets the role is a matter of considerable speculation, as Maung Aye is required to rubber stamp any proposal. The man widely tipped to be Than Shwe’s preferred choice, Gen Shwe Mann, is himself almost 60.

This would not be the first time that Maung Aye and Shwe Mann have been pitted against each other. Intelligence sources reported that, in 2005, Than Shwe divided the Burmese army into two supreme commands, with Maung Aye in charge of the Southern Command and Shwe Mann heading the Northern Command, thus marginalizing Maung Aye’s power base even further.

Maung Aye’s business links also appear to be diminishing. Aung Ko Win, chairman of Kanbawza Bank and the Myanmar Billion Group, and Yuzana Group’s Htay Myint—traditional allies of the deputy—are seen as minor players when compared to Than Shwe’s tycoon cronies, such as Tay Za and Maung Weik.

With his best days seemingly behind him, and such a lack of support both inside and outside the military regime, it is perhaps understandable that Maung Aye seems to have lost his smile.