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So far, and to the frustration of many officers, there are no obvious candidates.

 

At a recent series of international relations courses at the Defense Services Academy in Maymyo, some army officers confided to lecturers that a small clique of military top brass had hijacked political progress in the country. These military leaders, they say, are blocking the country’s economic development and road to political transition.

 

While it is difficult to gauge the size of the moderate faction within the Tatmadaw, it is safe to say that no such individuals occupy any positions of significant power. Nevertheless, opposition groups and Burma watchers have noticed the mood shift, and are currently wondering how to cultivate and encourage those moderate forces.

 

The opposition National League for Democracy, led by Nobel Peace Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in Burma’s 1990 elections with support coming not only from the civilian population, but also from disgruntled military voters.

 

Furthermore, several respectable army veterans, such as Gen Tin Oo (a former army chief who is now under house arrest), Col Kyi Maung (who died in 2004) and Brig-Gen Aung Shwe even went so far as to join the NLD. While these former army officers continue to push for change and national reconciliation in the country, they also struggle to guide the party towards becoming more pro-active.

 

Likewise, the military faces some serious problems—a secret document obtained by The Irrawaddy reveals an increasing number of deserters, low morale, rampant corruption, recruitment difficulties and internal disputes. Tatmadaw leaders also expressed concern over the poor fighting ability of many soldiers and officers and, in some cases, their inability to deal with mere handfuls of rebels.

 

Officers close to the ruling generals are not complaining, however. Distanced from the military’s day to day travails, this band of cronies are more concerned with savings, kickbacks and business opportunities. A crumbling Tatmadaw should prove no obstacle in their quest for top dog status.

 

Than Shwe Still Clinging On

 

Snr-Gen Than Shwe, commander-in-chief of Burma’s armed forces and chairman of the ruling State Peace and Development Council, is still running the show. What’s more, his eagerness to reward loyalty with promotion to key positions in government is supplying the paranoid general with a reliable safety net.

 

The aging chief’s ability to clip the wings of rivals and potential enemies can never be underestimated.