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Since 2000, there has been strong speculation within SPDC circles that if Than Shwe retired he will bring down Maung Aye with him.

 

Maung Aye, who was from Defense Services Academy (Batch 1), seems to have lost much of his clout, some critics believe. But those in Maung Aye’s camp are thought to have said that Than Shwe has lost the plot. They think Maung Aye seems to have his own vision.

 

Maung Aye (some former friends says he is half-Chinese) was believed to have been behind Khin Nyunt’s downfall. The two were at loggerheads for many years. But this does not necessarily mean Maung Aye’s star is rising.

 

If Than Shwe thinks Maung Aye is becoming a threat to his throne, he won’t be spared. But it could be premature to regard Maung Aye as a threat. Military observers say Than Shwe does not brook any hint of a threat, and would use a charge of high treason against his rivals.

 

Than Shwe didn’t even tolerate his own former boss, Ne Win, who spent his last days under house arrest. Ne Win’s grandsons are under detention charged with high treason, and his favorite daughter, Sandar Win, is still under house arrest.

 

Some analysts say Maung Aye is smart enough to figure out what’s going on. One western businessman with a keen interest in Burma, commenting on the tension, said:  “This is an unsustainable situation. It won’t work.” He added: “My opinion is the fight will continue. But Than Shwe has all the cards and he can push a button to remove his rivals anytime he wants.”

 

Cynically, the businessman said that in this dog-eat-dog business “the one who pulls the gun the fastest will be the winner.”