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As it is considered the generals’ only viable exit strategy, the junta chairman will not backtrack at this point.

 

So where does that leave opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the dialogue process?

 

For starters, her safety may be in jeopardy. Soe Win is believed to have engineered the deadly “Black Friday” attack against the opposition’s motorcade in Upper Burma in May 2003. Furthermore, Than Shwe cringes when her name is mentioned in his presence. Don’t bet on her release from house arrest anytime soon.

 

But they will have to do something with her. “Than Shwe is a smart strategist,” said a Burmese analyst in Rangoon. “He will make another move. He knows he has to deal with Suu Kyi.” But first, he will make sure to consolidate his power and protect his family from danger. 

 

In a display of confidence, just barely a week after the purge, Than Shwe flew to India for state visit. He told top Indian officials that his government is committed to bringing democracy and drafting a new constitution to end four decades of military rule.

 

Accompanying him on the trip were the wives of top army leaders Shwe Mann and the Commander of the Rangoon Command. Shwe Mann, Maung Aye and Soe Win, meanwhile, stayed home, prompting some skeptics to suggest that the spouses were taken to India as “hostages”, in order to prevent a counter-coup in his absence.

 

Reaction from the Neighbors

 

Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid expressed concern about the leadership changes. He said: “I think it has hurt us because of the suddenness of the thing. All of us were caught by surprise.” About Burma’s membership in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, he added that the regional group’s image now “depends on what Myanmar [Burma] does.”

 

So far, however, there is no indication that Asean will abandon its non-interference policy towards its members and prod Burma to put its house in order. Philippines President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo reiterated her support for the group’s “constructive engagement” policy. Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai said that Soe Win is a nice, easy-going leader, with an international standing.”

 

But US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher thought otherwise: “We note that the new prime minister was reportedly directly involved in the decision to carry out the brutal attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her convoy on May 30th, 2003.”

 

No matter who is prime minister, Than Shwe will call the shots in Burma for now. And if he is really driven by a desire to go down in history as Burma’s “benevolent king”, as some observers have indicated, and if his recent remark to an Asian diplomat that this military government will be Burma’s last is really true, then perhaps brighter days lie ahead.

 

“Than Shwe understands that his country will have to enter the mainstream,” said the diplomat.