Than Shwe’s ‘The Art of War’
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Than Shwe’s ‘The Art of War’


By AUNG ZAW MAR — APR, 2009 - VOLUME 17 NO.2


Burmese junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe reviews soldiers during Armed Forces Day celebrations in Rangoon in March, 2007. (Photo: AP)
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It essentially assumes that the Tatmadaw enjoys the support of the nation and, according to Maung Aung Myoe, is “built on a system of ‘total people’s defense,’ [whereby] the armed forces provide the first line of defense, and the training and leadership of the nation in the matter of national defense.

“It is designed,” he added, “to deter potential aggressors [with] the knowledge that the defeat of the Tatmadaw in conventional warfare would be followed by persistent guerilla warfare in the occupied areas by militias and dispersed regular troops, [which] would eventually wear down the invader.”

Ne Win adopted the people’s war concept to combat insurgency and the threat of communists in the 1970s and 1980s. Ne Win’s government was able to mobilize civilians, villagers, war veterans’ organizations, militias and even students and youths, and provided them with basic military training. When the insurgents’ threat was neutralized, Ne Win and his commanders declared that the people’s war had defeated Burma’s enemies.

Nowadays, in almost every speech to commanders and soldiers, the army leaders—including Than Shwe—remind them of the need for a people’s war and to nurture the support of the masses. Than Shwe’s call is for a “people’s war under modern conditions,” wrote Maung Aung Myoe. Interestingly, under Than Shwe’s people’s war, the concept of cyber warfare has also been launched.

In 1998, the Tatmadaw held its first joint military exercises of the navy, the air force and the army to introduce counteroffensive strategies to the existing people’s war doctrine.

During these exercises, the fire brigade, the Myanmar Red Cross and the Union Solidarity Development Association were mobilized. “The exercises,” Maung Aung Myoe wrote, “revealed that the purpose of such a counteroffensive was to counter low-level foreign invasion.”

According to the author, the new doctrine developed under the regime dictates that, should the standing conventional force fail to defeat an invading force on the beachheads or landing zones, resistance would be organized at the village, regional and national levels to sap the will of the invading force. When the enemy’s will is sapped and its capabilities are dispersed and exhausted, the Burmese army would be able to muster sufficient force to wage a counteroffensive that would drive the invader from Burma.

Intelligence sources revealed that Than Shwe and senior military officers sat in a war room and discussed war games plans. One inevitable inland route was identified as Burma’s historical adversary, Thailand.

Burmese leaders have never hidden their suspicion that Thailand’s annual Cobra Gold joint military exercise with the US and regional forces are a potential threat to Burma.

Aside from Thailand, Burmese military officers also pored over the invasion plans of “Operation Desert Storm” in Iraq, the US-Afghanistan War and the recent Kosovo War, paying particular attention to US strategies.

They have also studied tunnel warfare with specific regard to North Korean defense. Burma has sent several delegations to Pyongyang since normalizing relations with North Korea last year, but military sources have confirmed that Burma’s late Prime Minister Gen Soe Win implemented tunnel warfare strategies as early as 2000.

Although a series of underground routes was supposedly built in central Burma, it is believed the program was halted after Chinese officials convinced Soe Win that tunnel warfare was no longer a viable option due to the introduction of the US-made BLU-82B/ C-130 weapon, nicknamed “daisy cutters,” that has been employed successfully in Afghanistan to destroy Taliban underground complexes and caves.

Many social and philosophical reasons for moving the Burmese capital to Naypyidaw have been aired, but in the end, it was a strategic military maneuver.

“Until and unless one [side] commits its ground force to capture its [enemy’s] military headquarters, a war cannot be declared over,” Maung Aung Myoe wrote. “The moving of the capital and military high command from Yangon (Rangoon) to Naypyitaw (Naypyidaw) clearly reflects the underlying military thinking and war fighting strategy of the Tatmadaw.” 

The author argued that an amphibious landing on the west coast of Burma, and a simultaneous land-based invasion from the eastern Karen or Karenni State would not only cut off Rangoon from Upper Burma, but also make it a target for attacks from the south.



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mike Wrote:
04/05/2009
Okkar and Naingmya must have blind faith in Than Shwe. They might be supported by Than Shwe as military officers having their special chances to become rich men under military rule.

Bob Smith Wrote:
23/04/2009
I hate this man. He shall burn.

aung Wrote:
21/04/2009
For Okkar,

Oh lord, we will have new columnist for "Barber's Chair." Ha ha.



naingmya Wrote:
21/04/2009
I salute Snr-Gen Than Shwe.

Burma is the great country which has been proudly standing between the two largest countries in the world. Burma can beat any country if they really want to fight. Burmese leaders are very smart and they would never intrude on any country. They are always standing on the right side. They have the best courage and greatest power to protect their fellow citizens living in Burma. The Burmese army is one of the best combat armies in the world and has lot experience.

The victorious Burma army is formed by the world's toughest soldiers.

Moe Aung Wrote:
04/04/2009
Thailand's dilemma is the balance between humanitarian concerns and self-interest, since the refugee camps stand mainly on their soil but at the same time they need to be in the good books of the Burmese regime for both business and strategic military interests. They can rightly expect the junta to be emboldened if Cobra Gold were to be scrapped.

If the junta did decide to go to war with Thailand, it would simply be digging a deeper hole for itself. The US would have been handed on a platter an ironclad justification to enter the fray. The Burmese military would suffer massive losses if not outright defeat and counter-invasion, and start to implode. China's hands would be tied unless a defense treaty with its wayward neighbor exists. Even if such a treaty does exist would it start WWIII on its doorstep?

The generals have taken a leaf out of the books of both Mao and Messrs Thompson, Templer & Briggs, albeit with their shared core principle cut out, namely the “battle for hearts and minds.” Coercion rules.

Okkar Wrote:
04/04/2009
Oh, Prophet Eric Johnston, you are dead spot on! Burma will conqueror Thailand again. History will repeat itself, King Than Shwe will sack Bangkok just like King Alaung Phaya did. Why do you think there are so many refugee camps in Thailand? Kayin and Shan insurgents hiding on Thai soil are perfect cover for stockpiling weapons and ammunition. This plan has been in the making for the past 50 years, and soon it will be revealed. King Than Shwe, King of Kings, conqueror of Thailand, ruler of Bangladesh, defender of Burma, protector of Buddhism, shall be victorious. Get down on your hands and knees and worship him, ask for his blessing!

Eric Johnston Wrote:
02/04/2009
We can deduce that there is a “fifth column” in countries bordering Burma. The fifth columnists are mainly influential people whose self-interest, consciously or unconsciously, causes them to act against the security of their country. Moral, political and physical unpreparedness to counter future aggression is a consequence of their intrigues.

Burmese migrant workers, often regarded with suspicion, are no significant threat. Most are, with good reason, unsympathetic to the Burmese military. They are not even a particularly effective cover for regime agents, who can operate much more freely as businessmen.

For a definition of “fifth column”, see:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fifth_column


Eric Johnston Wrote:
02/04/2009
Does the regime believe itself threatened by external forces? Ten to fifteen years ago, surely. But today? While the generals may be mad, they are not stupid.

The pretense is useful. Persuading personnel the country is threatened exploits patriotism to retain loyalty.

A more important reason:

If hoping to attack, conceal the fact. If the preparations cannot be hidden, make it appear they are defensive.

According to a Tatmadaw officer present, the Army Commander addressed a gathering of officers being sent to Russia by saying that they will conquer Thailand when there is the clout to do so. A fit of pique? Possibly.

Cobra Gold exercises symbolize a US commitment to Thailand's defence. This is most unwelcome to the Burmese generals and their main backer.

The 'softening-up' of a future prey begins years in advance, by the creation of a 'fifth column' and by lulling the intended victim into a false sense of security.

George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
02/04/2009
Yes, Than Shwe has made his choice long ago, and is on his way down the river of no return today.

But then what can you expect from a guy like Than Shwe with a pea brain. And the guy is also still refusing to “grow up.” Skulking in his lair at Naypyidaw, renders him no security nor less vulnerable than a woman without a husband to protect her.

He should have known better than making unholy alliances as answers to his security, much less stability and peace.

Military might does not make a man mightier. Even a US president is “offering” to talk with terrorists and killers today.

Hiding behind 400,000 men armed with Chinese hardware, as Than Shwe is doing today to save his own hide and ill-gotten wealth, reveals his character and mindset, bordering on lunacy and stupidity, to say the least.

Than Shwe's arms buildup today can’t be explained beyond the fact that it is to intimidate and kill his own people if they refuse to stay in line and under his boot.

lwin Wrote:
01/04/2009
Is there a way to remove all those military thugs from ruling the country? I do not see it. The people of burma have suffered long enough and the UN is hopeless as well.

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